Assessment of the road transport infrastructure facility functionality loss risk resulting from climate change

Abstract

The cause of a road bridge functionality loss risk in the conditions of climate changes in the Arctic is a decrease in its load-bearing capacity as a result of permafrost soil degradation. Modeling of the soil temperature regime of the bridge piling in Yakutsk for 2 years was performed and the minimum load-bearing capacity of the bridge piling was determined for this period. It was assumed that the average annual air temperature increased by 2 degrees Celsius in combination with an increase in the contrast between summer and winter temperatures. The obtained value of the climate risk level (438 units) allows to continue operating the facility without implementing engineering and technical measures aimed at stabilizing the soil temperature regime.