CHA2DS2-VASc score as independent outcome predictor in patients with acute ischemic stroke with and without atrial fibrillation

Abstract

\n \n \n Atrial fibrillation (AF) was a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality of first acute ischemic stroke. The CHA2DS2-VASc scores were initially developed to assess the risk of stroke or systemic embolism in patients with AF. Recently, this scoring system have been demonstrated to have clinical value for predicting the severity of infarction and long-term clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke but the evidence is not strong enough due to limited numbers and single center data.\n \n \n \n This large-scale prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the independent predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc scores and AF in such patients.\n \n \n \n We included patients from Taiwan Stroke Registry (TSR) with ischemic stroke within 2006 to 2016 as the present study population. Patients were mainly divided in atrial fibrillation (AF) group and non-AF group. We future classified patient by CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age≥75 years, diabetes, previous stroke, vascular disease, age 65–74 years, sex category) score 0–1 and ≥2. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), which include re-stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death, occurred within 1 year after the onset of stroke. The secondary outcome was the all-cause mortality.\n \n \n \n We defined 2972 patients with MACE and 61,937 patients without MACE. With adjusting with the confounding of CHA2DS2-VASc scores, The AF group was associated with increased MACE (OR=1.15; 95% CI=1.00, 1.33), myocardial infarction (adjusted OR=3.89; 95% CI=1.81, 8.34), CV death (OR=5.73; 95% CI=3.77, 8.69) and all-cause mortality (OR=1.50; 95% CI=1.37, 1.65) but not in re-stroke (adjusted OR=1.02; 95% CI=0.88, 1.18). After controlling for AF, patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥2 had significantly higher odds of MACE (OR=1.28; 95% CI=1.16, 1.41), re-stroke (OR=1.27; 95% CI=1.16, 1.40) and all-cause mortality (OR=2.26; 95% CI=2.06, 2.48) than that of patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores 0–1. The survival curve revealed both AF and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are independent risk factors of 1 year MACE and mortality. By investigating the individual risk factor of CHA2DS2-VASc score, diabetes, hypertension and age over 65 years old increase the risk of MACE significantly.\n \n \n \n CHA2DS2-VASc scores appear to have potent independent value as AF for predicting 1 year MACE and all-cause mortality in patients of acute ischemic stroke.\n \n \n \n Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1 Figure 2\n