Spatial Risk Distribution of Dengue Based on the Ecological Niche Model of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Central Mexican Highlands

Abstract

Abstract Dengue is the most important viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, predominantly Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera:Culicidae). Forty percent of the world s population is at risk of contracting the disease, and a large area of Mexico presents suitable environmental conditions for the life cycle of Ae. aegypti. In particular, the Central Mexican Highlands have a high population density, increasing the risk of transmission and propagation of dengue. In the present study, the potential distribution of Ae. aegypti was modeled under an ecological niche approach using the maximum entropy technique with the aim of determining the spatial risk distribution of dengue. The final model of five variables (minimum temperature of the coldest month |Bio6|, precipitation of the wettest month |Bio13|, precipitation seasonality |Bio15|, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and relative humidity) contributed to more than 90% of the model s performance. The results of the potential distribution model were then compared with the number of dengue cases per locality during the 2009–2015 period considering four suitability of presence categories. Category 4 corresponded with the highest suitability of presence (0.747 to 1) and the greatest risk of dengue (odds ratio [OR] = 103.27; P < 0.001). In conclusion, the present ecological niche model represents an important tool for the monitoring of dengue and the identification of high-risk areas.