Genomic Risk Score for Melanoma in a Prospective Study of Older Individuals.

Abstract

BACKGROUND\nRecent genome-wide association meta-analysis for melanoma doubled the number of previously identified variants. We assessed the performance of an updated polygenic risk score (PRS) in a population of older individuals, where melanoma incidence and cumulative ultraviolet radiation exposure is greatest.\n\n\nMETHODS\nWe assessed a PRS for cutaneous melanoma comprising 55 variants in a prospective study of 12,712 individuals in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. We evaluated incident melanomas diagnosed during the trial and prevalent melanomas diagnosed pre-enrolment (self-reported). Multivariable models examined associations between PRS as a continuous variable (per standard deviation [SD]), and categorical (low-risk [0-20%], medium-risk [21-80%], high-risk [81-100%] groups) with incident melanoma. Logistic regression examined the association between PRS and prevalent melanoma.\n\n\nRESULTS\nAt baseline, mean participant age was 75 years; 55.0% were female, and 528 (4.2%) had prevalent melanomas. During follow-up (median = 4.7 years), 120 (1.0%) incident cutaneous melanomas occurred, 98 of which were in participants with no history. PRS was associated with incident melanoma (hazard ratio = 1.46 per SD, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.20-1.77) and prevalent melanoma (odds ratio [OR]=1.55 per SD, 95% CI\u2009=\u20091.42-1.69). Participants in the highest-risk PRS group had increased risk compared to the low-risk group for incident (OR\u2009=\u20092.51, 95% CI\u2009=\u20091.28-4.92) and prevalent (OR\u2009=\u20093.66, 95% CI\u2009=\u20092.69-5.05). When stratifying by sex, only males had an association between the PRS and incident melanoma, whereas both sexes had an association between the PRS and prevalent melanoma.\n\n\nCONCLUSION\nA genomic risk score is associated with melanoma risk in older individuals, and may contribute to targeted surveillance.