Predicting recurrence of nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer (Ta-T1)

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to determine clinical recrudescent risk factors of 477 patients with newly discovered nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) (Ta-T1) in our hospital, and based on these factors, to establish a recurrence risk prediction model of each NMIBC patient. This study included 477 patients with newly discovered NMIBC (Ta-T1) from January 2012 to December 2016; all patients were treated surgically by transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). The outcomes of patients were with or without recurrence within 2 years. The nomograms were based on Cox regression analyses, and the calibration curves were founded to evaluate the agreements of the predicted probability with the actual observed probability. Of the 477 patients with NMIBC, 392 were males (82.2%) and 85 were females (17.8%), with median age 64 years. Recurrence was identified in 327 cases (68.6%). The results showed that old age, female sex, smoking history, large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, high grade, and high stage are risk factors for NMIBC recurrence, whereas no significant association was seen between tumor location and recurrence in our study. Based on the results of Cox regression analyses, several independent risk factors, including smoking history, tumor size, multifocal, immediate infusion therapy, T stage, and tumor grade, were used to establish a nomogram to calculate the recurrence probability of each NMIBC patient, and the calibration curve displayed that this nomogram had a great value of prediction. Old age, female sex, smoking history, large size of tumor, multifocal tumors, high grade, and high stage are risk factors for NMIBC recurrence, whereas immediate infusion therapy is a protective factor. And a nomogram was established as a prediction model to calculate the recurrence probability of NMIBC patients.