COVID-19 spread and Weather in U.S. states: a cross-correlative study on summer-autumn 2020.

Abstract

An effect of weather on sars-cov-2 transmission is regularly proposed as a putative cause of unexplained fluctuations of covid-19 new cases, but clear data supporting this hypothesis remains to be presented. Here I measured longitudinal time-series correlations between outdoor temperature, humidity and covid-19 reproduction number (Rt) in the 50 U.S. states (+DC). In order to mitigate the confounding influence of varying social restriction measures, the analysis spans a 5-month period during summer and autumn 2020 when restrictions were comparatively lower and more stable. I used a cross-covariance approach to account for a variable delay between infection and case report. For a delay near 11 days, most U.S. states exhibited a negative correlation between outdoor temperature and Rt, as well as between absolute humidity and Rt (mean r = -0.35). In 21 states, the correlation was strong (r < -0.5). Individual state data are presented, and associations between cold and/or dry weather episodes and short-term new case surges are proposed. After identifying potential confounding factors, I discuss 3 possible causal mechanisms that could explain a correlation between outdoor weather and indoor disease transmission: behavioral adaptations to cold weather, respiratory tract temperature, and the importing of outdoor absolute humidity to indoor spaces.