UK and other SARS-CoV-2-Covariants - Simulation Modeling 70% Increase

Abstract

CovidSIMVL, an agent-based contagion-based viral transmission simulation tool, was employed to simulate the effects of viral agents of differing levels of infectivity. The constructs Velocity and Increase in Velocity were operationalized in terms of rates of transmission events over successive iterations (generations) in a set of CovidSIMVL trials. Treating 40-70% increase in velocity as a target, based on reports in the literature for the UK variant (VUI 202012/01), the series of trials reported in the paper demonstrate the calibration of CovidSIMVL parameters to produce increases in transmission rates of 40-70% above a baseline value. A series of follow-up studies is proposed to evaluate three different possible explanations for reported increases in SARS-Cov2-2 infections that are being attributed to spread of the UK and other variants: (a) simulations where the inherent characteristics of the virus (infectivity) are varied (genomic studies); (b) simulations where the behaviour of agents is varied (e.g., movement within and between spaces) while inherent characteristics of the virus are held constant (behavioural studies); and (c) simulations where both inherent properties of the virus and the behaviour of agents are varying to tease out the interaction between biologically-based contributions to increased case counts, and contextual/behavioural contributions (epigenetic studies).