Characterizing the countrywide epidemic spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Kenya between 2009 and 2018

Abstract

Background: The spatiotemporal patterns of spread of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses on a countrywide scale are unclear in many tropical/subtropical regions mainly because spatiotemporally representative sequence data is lacking. Methods: We isolated, sequenced, and analyzed 383 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viral genomes isolated from hospitalized patients between 2009 and 2018 from seven locations across Kenya. Using these genomes and contemporaneously sampled global sequences, we characterized the spread of the virus in Kenya over several seasons using phylodynamic methods. Results: The transmission dynamics of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in Kenya was characterized by: (i) multiple virus introductions into Kenya over the study period, although these were remarkably few, with only a few of those introductions instigating seasonal epidemics that then established local transmission clusters; (ii) persistence of transmission clusters over several epidemic seasons across the country; (iii) seasonal fluctuations in effective reproduction number (Re) associated with lower number of infections and seasonal fluctuations in relative genetic diversity after an initial rapid increase during the early pandemic phase, which broadly corresponded to epidemic peaks in the northern and southern hemispheres; (iv) high virus genetic diversity with greater frequency of seasonal fluctuations in 2009-11 and 2018 and low virus genetic diversity with relatively weaker seasonal fluctuations in 2012-17; and (v) virus migration from multiple geographical regions to multiple geographical destinations in Kenya. Conclusion: Considerable influenza virus diversity circulates within Africa, as demonstrated in this report, including virus lineages that are unique to the region, which may be capable of dissemination to other continents through a globally migrating virus population. Further knowledge of the viral lineages that circulate within understudied low-to-middle income tropical and subtropical regions is required to understand the full diversity and global ecology of influenza viruses in humans and to inform vaccination strategies within these regions.