Leveraging probability concepts for genotype by environment recommendation

Abstract

Statistical models that capture the phenotypic plasticity of a genotype across environments are crucial in plant breeding programs to potentially identify parents, generate offspring, and obtain highly productive genotypes for distinct environments. In this study, our aim is to leverage concepts of Bayesian models and probability methods of stability analysis to untangle genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI). The proposed method employs the posterior distribution obtained with the No-U-Turn sampler algorithm to get Monte Carlo estimates of adaptation and stability probabilities. We applied the proposed models in two empirical tropical datasets. Our findings provide a basis to enhance our ability to consider the uncertainty of cultivar recommendation for global or specific adaptation. We further demonstrate that probability methods of stability analysis in a Bayesian framework are a powerful tool for unraveling GEI given a defined intensity of selection that results in a more informed decision-making process towards cultivar recommendation in multi-environment trials.