Risk assessment for long and short range airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, indoors and outdoors, using carbon dioxide measurements.

Abstract

A quantitative analysis of the viral transmission risk in public spaces al- lows us to identify the dominant mechanisms that a proactive public health policy can act upon to reduce risk, and to evaluate the reduction of risk that can be obtained. The contribution of public spaces to the propa- gation of SARS-CoV-2 can be reduced to a level necessary for a declining epidemic, i.e. an overall reproduction rate below one. Here, we revisit the quantitative assessment of indoor and outdoor transmission risk. We show that the long-range aerosol transmission is controlled by the flow rate of fresh air and by the mask filtering quality, and is quantitatively re- lated to the CO2 concentration, regardless the room volume and the num- ber of people. The short-range airborne transmission is investigated ex- perimentally using dedicated dispersion experiments performed in two shopping malls. Exhaled aerosols are dispersed by turbulent draughts in a cone, leading to a concentration inversely proportional to the squared dis- tance and to the flow velocity. We show that the average infection dose, called the viral quantum, can be determined from epidemiological data in a manner consistent with biological experimental data. Practical implications. The results provide quantitative guidance useful for making rational public health policy decisions to prevent the dominant routes of viral transmission through reinforced ventilation, air purification, mechanical dispersion using fans, and incentivizing the wear- ing of correctly fitted, quality facial masks (surgical masks, possibly cov- ered by another fabric mask, or non-medical FFP2 masks). Taken to- gether, such measures significantly reduce the airborne transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2.