BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinations in Israel: understanding the impact and improving the vaccination policies by redefining the immunized population

Abstract

By the end of February 2021, when 48% of the Israeli population was immune, the number of new positive COVID-19 cases significantly dropped across all ages. Understanding which parameters influenced this drop and how to minimize the number of hospitalizations and overall positive cases is urgently needed. In this study we conducted an observational analysis which included COVID-19 data with over 12,000,000 PCR tests from 250 cities in Israel. In addition, we performed a simulation of different vaccination campaigns to find the optimal policy. Our analysis revealed that cities with younger populations reached a decrease in new cases when a lower percentage of their residents were immunized, showing that median age is a crucial parameter effecting overall immunity, while other parameters appeared to be insignificant. This variance between cities is explained by recalculating the immunized population and multiplying each individual by a factor symbolizing the impact of their age on the spread on the virus. This factor is easily calculated from historical data of positive cases per age. The simulation proves that prioritizing different age groups or changing the rate of vaccinations drastically effects the overall hospitalizations and positive cases.