An Adaptive-Tunable-Based Hybrid RBF Network for EGTM Prediction

Abstract

Aero-engine exhaust gas temperature margin (EGTM) is one of the main indexes of engine replacement; however, the application of existing methods in EGTM forecasting is restricted because of the limited prediction accuracy and many non-linearities. In this study, an adaptive-tunable-based hybrid radial basis function (RBF) network is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of aero-engine EGTM. Firstly, a hybrid RBF network consisting of a RBF network and a linear regression model is built as a fundamental EGTM predictive algorithm. Secondly, to increase the network’s adaptation capabilities, the structural parameters of the proposed network are adaptively modulated by Brownian motion modeling and particle filter without physics-based models. Finally, multiple sets of EGTM data from a certain type aero-engines in an airline company is selected for engine removal time prediction. Experiment results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive-tunable-based hybrid RBF network with a high prediction accuracy, and can reflect the characteristics of EGTM well and truly, which can capture the dynamic nature of EGTM in time during the forecasting process.