Predicting Travel Demand of a Docked Bikesharing System Based on LSGC-LSTM Networks

Abstract

The sustainable development of docked bikesharing systems has gained focus again owing to several problems in dockless bikesharing systems, including wanton destruction, theft, illegal parking, loss, and bankruptcy. The prediction of pickup/return demands is a critical issue for the sustainable operation of docked bikesharing systems. We propose a novel local spectral graph convolution (LSGC)- long short-term memory (LSTM) to predict pickup/return demands based on multi-source data. We apply LSGC to indicate the spatial dependency according to the geographic information system data that provide the location of stations, and we apply LSTM to demonstrate the temporal dependency based on the time-series data that represent pickup/return demands for public bikes. The LSGC-LSTM and six baseline models are trained with multi-source data of a month from a docked bikesharing system. The baseline models consist of a recurrent neural network, a LSTM, a gated recurrent unit, a graph attention LSTM network, an adaptive graph convolutional recurrent network, and a dynamic graph convolutional neural network. Results indicate that the LSGC-LSTM obtains a higher prediction accuracy and a higher efficiency than the baseline models.