2021 IEEE European Technology and Engineering Management Summit (E-TEMS) | 2021
Modelling Circularity in Bio-based Economy Through Territorial System Dynamics
Abstract
We deploy territorial system dynamics as a methodology to analyze stock and flow diagrams (SFD), identify the circularity in the value chain management of bioeconomy, the strengths and limits of circular economy incorporating symbiotic links between multi-products supply chain. Complex systems theory, supply chain management and the geographic economy constitute the frameworks conceptualizing the closed loops supply chain management of industrial symbiosis. Our outcomes draw up three scenarios proposing simulations for 2027, which are able to integrate the complexity of multi-products and by-products allocation (sugar green juice, low quality syrup, CO2, and stillage) in the model. The strategic decisions engaged in the Scenario 2 trigger a less resilient industrial network in comparison with baseline scenario 1, standing out the lack of resilience in the biorefinery platform to an exogenous tension like climate change resulting in extreme periods of rain or drought. Scenario 2 results from a decrease in sugar beet production by 5%, in sugar beet production will trigger a fall of almost 50% on sugar production by 2027 in comparison with the baseline scenario. Furthermore, scenario 3 (COVID-19) shows strong negative effects just after 2020 crisis for agro-industrial ecosystems in cities, but they can maintain value chain functionality which is not the case for climate change effects in scenario 2, entailing a faster network recovery that in some extent can be explained on the bases of the value chain circularity of industrial symbiosis.