The Application of Linear optimization in Establishing Safety Triggers in Safety Performance Management

Abstract

As a data-driven management mechanism, the safety management system (SMS) emphasizes that all safety decisions should be made based on objective data. The safety performance management (SPM), as an element of SMS, is considered of great importance to evaluate the effectiveness of SMS. The standard deviation principle (STDEVP) recommended by International Civil Aviation organization (ICAO) offers a way to set the criteria values that serve to trigger the evaluation, decision, adjustment or intervention relate to particular safety performance indicator (SPI). However, more specific operational guidance on how to determine reasonable safety triggers based on the historical data is yet to offer. This paper proposed a practical way of designing safety triggers based on STDEVP using linear optimization. The objective of the optimization is to reduce the cost of safety management while maintain an acceptable safety margin, and constraints are based on historical data of the operation. The optimized safety margin can be determined by solving the constraint conditions, which will serve as the reference of designing safety triggers. The applicability of the method is verified by applying it to monitor the SPIs in airline companies.