Dynamic Attribution Analysis for Runoff Change Integrating Landsat-Derived Land Use Dynamics with Swat Model

Abstract

In this study, integrating Landsat-derived land uses in continuous years with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model, we have quantified the inter-annual attribution of runoff change in the Qingliu River, China. We found that runoff increased insignificantly during 1960-2012 and changed abruptly in 1984. The land use changed year-by-year mainly from forest and farmland to residential area. Climate variability dominated runoff increase (with a mean of 115.77%) during 1989-2012 except for 2005 and 2007, during which human activity was the main contributor. In comparison, land use changes increased runoff and exhibited relatively small contribution to the runoff change over time. The findings would help people better understand the behavior of the Qingliu River and benefit decision-makers for adaptive water resources management in a changing environment.