Reliability Assessment of Converter- Dominated Power Systems Using Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

With the proliferation of renewable energy and power electronic converters in power systems, the reliability issue has raised more research attention than ever before. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework to assess the reliability of a power system considering the effect from various power converter uncertainties. For the converter stage, we formulate a reliability model for each power converter based on several semiconductor devices, for which ambient uncertainties and converter topologies are considered. For the system stage, we estimate system reliability indicators through a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and calculate their variances. Afterward, we leverage machine learning regression algorithms between two stages to establish a nonlinear reliability relation. Moreover, a variance-based sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted to rank and identify the most influential converter uncertainties with respect to the variance of system EENS. Based on the SA conclusions, system operators can take proactive actions to mitigate the potential risk of the system.