Predictability and Prediction of Human Mobility Based on Application-Collected Location Data

Abstract

In the modern information society, analysis of human mobility becomes increasingly essential in various areas such as city planning and resource management. With users’ historical trajectories, the inherent patterns of their movements can be extracted and utilized to accurately predict the future movements. Plenty of previous work adopted traditional Markov model, which suffers when the trajectory becomes sparse or it shows distinct mobility patterns in different time of day. In this paper, based on an app-collected dataset of 100,000 individuals’ actively uploaded location information, we comprehensively analyze the mobility and predictability of each user. To approach the theoretical predictability and overcome the shortcomings of traditional Markov model, we propose a time-variant Markov model based on Gibbs sampling for mobility prediction. Specifically, we model human mobility as several interconnected Markov chains, each chain corresponds to a movement pattern of a period of time. Then, we adopt Gibbs sampling method to simultaneously recover the missing part of trajectories and train the Markov chains, in order to solve the unevenly distribution and the high missing rate. Results show that our prediction algorithm can achieve 11.2 percent higher prediction accuracy than the benchmark method, especially on sparse trajectories. In addition, we discover a high correlation between prediction accuracy and predictability, with correlation coefficient reaching 0.81. Finally, we investigate various factors including spatial and temporal resolution, orders of Markov models, and radius of gyration, in order to further explore the predictability under different circumstances.