LA-LMRBF: Online and Long-term Web Service QoS Forecasting

Abstract

We propose a Long-term Quality of Service (QoS) forecasting approach using Advertisement and Levenberg-Marquardt improved Radial Basis Function (LA-LMRBF) – a novel online QoS forecasting approach. LA-LMRBF aims to accurately predict QoS attributes of Web services in the form of multivariate time series via three stages. First, the phase space reconstruction theory is employed to restore multi-dimensional and nonlinear relations among the multivariate QoS attributes. Second, short-term QoS advertisement data is incorporated to enable long-term QoS forecasting. Finally, an optimized Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network is constructed to forecast long-term multivariate QoS values, where the Affinity Propagation clustering algorithm is used to determine the number of hidden nodes and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is utilized to dynamically update some parameters of the RBF neural network. A series of experiments are performed on a mixture of public and self-collected data sets. The results show that LA-LMRBF is superior to the other approaches and more suitable for long-term QoS forecasting.