Exploring Variability within Ensembles of Decadal Climate Predictions

Abstract

Ensemble simulations are used in climate research to account for natural variability. For medium-term decadal predictions, each simulation run is initialized with real observations from a different day resulting in a set of possible climatic futures. Understanding the variability and the predictive power in this wealth of data is still a challenging task. In this paper, we introduce a visual analytics system to explore variability within ensembles of decadal climate predictions. We propose a new interactive visualization technique (clustering timeline) based on the Sankey diagram, which conveys a concise summary of data similarity and its changes over time. We augment the system with two additional visualizations, filled contour maps and heatmaps, to provide analysts with additional information relating the new diagram to raw data and automatic clustering results. The usefulness of the technique is demonstrated by case studies and user interviews.