The role of gun supply in 1980s and 1990s youth violence

Abstract

Youth violence, particularly among young black males, particularly in urban areas, increased radically in the late 1980s and early 1990s and then began to fall. One explanation for this has been the expansion of crack markets in the 1980s; to the degree that increased gun access among young black males was believed to play a role, the implicit assumption was there was a demand shock in gun markets. Using a novel data set of handgun prices for 1980-2000, combined with ATF data on US firearm production quantities, we document that in fact the prices for cheaper “entry-level” guns fell in this period, suggesting a positive supply shock for the bottom end of the market. We argue that in substantial part this was due to a major reduction in the resources and activities of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (BATF) in the 1980s. This allowed substantially greater freedom among licensed gun dealers, a pattern which was reversed in the early 1990s (changes in manufacturing also appear to have played a role in the initial expansion). We document that the positive supply shock increased the availability of guns to criminally active youth and led to higher rates of gun access for young black men, particularly ∗We would like to thank Anne Morrison Piehl, Phil Cook, Jurgen Brauer, Chris Bollinger, Will Gerken and Joel Wallman for helpful comments and assistance, Joshua Buckman, Ethan Campbell, Chase Coleman, Jordan Haven, Katina Marchione, Alexander Melnykovych, Savanna Norrod, Travis Rose for excellent research assistance, and Phil Walker of Transylvania Library for assistance with resources on ATF and firearms markets. We would both like to thank the Jones Fund for faculty research grants.