Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.

Abstract

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g., advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g., range ex pansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages (`experienced photoperiod ). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses-affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod-shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season (`spring ) events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 hours of change for expected temporal versus one minute for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where, and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.