Risk modelling and probability analysis of civil aircraft operation in suborbital disintegration accident

Abstract

With the rapid development of space transportation, the extremely limited risk aversion capability for the current air traffic management system during the operation of space vehicles has been exposed, and it is urgent to further study the comprehensive coordination of airspace and outer space. A method is proposed for analysing the probability of civil aircrafts encountering the disassembly debris of suborbital spacecraft during operation. The study is carried out with the view to avoiding risks caused by the poor security and stability of suborbital space vehicle, reducing economic losses faced by the civil aviation industry in the era of outer space commercialization, and increasing the emergency responsiveness of the air traffic management system. By this method, the localization problem of moving objects in fourdimensional space is modelled as a stochastic process, and the probability problem of random vector is transformed into an integral problem of probability density function in the circle domain for solving. The results show that this method can reduce the range of aircraft hazard area, which is considered too conservative, and improve the calculation speed, which can meet the requirements of civil aviation in real-time responses to various situations.