Modeling and stability analysis of the spread of novel coronavirus disease COVID-19

Abstract

Towards the end of 2019, the world witnessed the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (COVID-19), a new strain of coronavirus that was unidentified in humans previously In this paper, a new fractional-order Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Hospitalized-Recovered (SEIHR) model is formulated for COVID-19, where the population is infected due to human transmission The fractional-order discrete version of the model is obtained by the process of discretization and the basic reproductive number is calculated with the next-generation matrix approach All equilibrium points related to the disease transmission model are then computed Further, sufficient conditions to investigate all possible equilibria of the model are established in terms of the basic reproduction number (local stability) and are supported with time series, phase portraits and bifurcation diagrams Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the theoretical findings © 2021 World Scientific Publishing Company