Provincial Grid Investment Scale Forecasting Based on MLR and RBF Neural Network

Abstract

Accurate calculation of power grid investment scale is an important work of power grid management. It is very important to power grid efficient development. Due to the characteristics of short data time series, lots of influencing factors, and large change of power grid investment, it is very difficult to calculate grid investment accurately. Firstly, this paper uses hierarchical clustering analysis method to divide the 23 provinces into four classes with considering fifteen power grid influencing factors, then uses spearman’s rank-order correlation to find out five key influencing factors, and then establishes the regression relationship between the growth rate of investment scale and GDP, permanent population, total social electricity consumption, installed power capacity of operation area, maximum power load, and other growth rates by using the multiple linear regression method (MLR), and the estimation error is corrected by using RBF neural network. Finally, the validity of the model is verified by using data related to power grid investment. The calculation error indicates that the model is feasible and effective.