Modelling the Latent Semantics of Diffusion Sources in Information Cascade Prediction

Abstract

Predicting the information spread tendency can help products recommendation and public opinion management. The existing information cascade prediction models are devoted to extract the chronological features from diffusion sequences but treat the diffusion sources as ordinary users. Diffusion source, the first user in the information cascade, can indicate the latent topic and diffusion pattern of an information item to mine user potential common interests, which facilitates information cascade prediction. In this paper, for modelling the abundant implicit semantics of diffusion sources in information cascade prediction, we propose a Diffusion Source latent Semantics-Fused cascade prediction framework, named DSSF. Specifically, we firstly apply diffusion sources embedding to model the special role of the source users. To learn the latent interaction between users and diffusion sources, we proposed a co-attention-based fusion gate which fuses the diffusion sources latent semantics with user embedding. To address the challenge that the distribution of diffusion sources is long-tailed, we develop an adversarial training framework to transfer the semantics knowledge from head to tail sources. Finally, we conduct experiments on real-world datasets, and the results show that modelling the diffusion sources can significantly improve the prediction performance. Besides, this improvement is limited for the cascades from tail sources, and the adversarial framework can help.