BDVCM about the Steel Box Girder Reliability Prediction Based on Monitoring Extreme Stresses

Abstract

To reasonably predict the steel box girder reliability considering the dynamic dependence among the performance functions corresponding to the failure modes of the multiple monitoring points, this paper firstly adopts the dynamic monitoring extreme stresses of the multiple control points to build the Bayesian Dynamic Vine Copula Model (BDVCM) taking into account the dynamic dependence of the multiple monitoring variables through combining the vine copula technique with Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models (BDLM); secondly, with first-order second-moment method and the built BDVCM, the steel box girder reliability, taking into account dynamic dependence among the performance functions corresponding to the failure modes of the multiple monitoring points, is predicted; finally, the monitoring data from the five sections of an existing steel box girder were provided to illustrate the proposed model and approach. The analytical results illustrated that the predicted results, without considering the dynamic nonlinear dependence among the failure modes of the multiple monitoring points, are conservative.