Exploring the Main Effect of e-Banking on the Banking Industry Concentration Degree on Predicting the Future of the Banking Industry: A Case Study

Abstract

Today, regarding the rapid growth of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), e-commerce, and the subsequent expansion of electronic banking, the banking market structure is also expected to dramatically be changed. This paper aims to explore the main effect of electronic banking on the structure of the Iranian banking industry by investigating the banking market concentration degree. To accomplish this aim, an intelligent hybrid model is developed based on multilayer perceptron neural network and fuzzy regression of the effects of banking on the relative electronic share of banks. In the developed method, the neural network parameters such as weights and errors have been considered as the fuzzy parameters to model it under uncertainty. Ultimately, the descriptive statistics are utilized to evaluate how the difference in relative size of banks concerning e-banking has changed, in addition to exploring the main effect of e-banking on the bank’s contribution described as a neural network-fuzzy regression model. Moreover, it shows how the concentration degree in the Iranian banking sector has been reduced. The implemented analysis of the reasons for this decrease reveals that the share of banks has decreased due to an increase in the share of the small banks. Furthermore, model estimation confirms that there exists a positive relationship between banks’ share and the use of electronic banking. Besides, the small banks have strongly been shown to utilize the e-banking so that it would lead to an increase in their share and a decrease in the concentration degree. As such, it can be concluded that e-banking has reduced the concentration degree in Iran. The descriptive statistics are employed to prove it.