The Value of the Surprise Question to Predict One-Year Mortality in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fatal disease with a heterogeneous disease course. Timely initiation of palliative care is often lacking. The surprise question “Would you be surprised if this patient died within the next year?” is increasingly used as a clinical prognostic tool in chronic diseases but has never been evaluated in IPF. Objective: We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the surprise question for 1-year mortality in IPF. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, clinicians answered the surprise question for each included patient. Clinical parameters and mortality data were collected. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, negative, and positive predictive value of the surprise question with regard to 1-year mortality were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate which factors were associated with mortality. In addition, discriminative performance of the surprise question was assessed using the C-statistic. Results: In total, 140 patients were included. One-year all-cause mortality was 20% (n = 28). Clinicians identified patients with a survival of <1 year with a sensitivity of 68%, a specificity of 82%, an accuracy of 79%, a positive predictive value of 49%, and a negative predictive value of 91%. The surprise question significantly predicted 1-year mortality in a multivariable model (OR 3.69; 95% CI 1.24–11.02; p = 0.019). The C-statistic of the surprise question to predict mortality was 0.75 (95% CI 0.66–0.85). Conclusions: The answer on the surprise question can accurately predict 1-year mortality in IPF. Hence, this simple tool may enable timely focus on palliative care for patients with IPF.