Comments on Impacts of the U.S.–China Trade War on ASEAN: Case of Thailand

Abstract

Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Thailand Development Research Institute: This paper focuses on impacts of the U.S.–China trade war on the Thai economy. As an economy that is highly dependent on external trade and services as growth drivers, and is also linked to the global supply chains, the Thai economy cannot avoid being affected, adversely or otherwise, from a trade war between the two largest economies in the world. There are many channels of impacts including substitution effects, supply chain effects, income effects, investment effects, and other non-trade impacts. These are summarized in Table 1, together with likely directions of impacts on Thailand (+ denotes favorable and − denotes unfavorable).