Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in the Missouri River Basin from 1950 – 2019

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are challenging to local and regional stakeholders across the United States. The Missouri River Basin (MoRB), covering an area over 1.29 million km2, is prone to extreme precipitation events. These events are exacerbated by the complex terrain in the west and the numerous weather and climate features which impact the region on a seasonal/annual basis (low-level jets, mesoscale convective systems, extreme cold air intrusions, etc.). Without an in-depth analysis of extreme precipitation in the MoRB, the evolving nature of extreme precipitation is not known. This warrants an analysis of extreme precipitation, especially relating to sub-annual variations when extreme precipitation is more impactful. To this end, data from 131 United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations were used to determine the nature of extreme precipitation from 1950 – 2019. Annual 99th percentile and annual station maximum precipitation events occur more frequently in the eastern MoRB than in the western MoRB, in line with the annual precipitation climatology. Results show that 99th percentile events and annual station maximum precipitation events are becoming more frequent across the MoRB. Through analysis of 3-month extreme precipitation trends, areas in the eastern and southern MoRB are shown to have an increasing event frequency and intensity. Frequency shifts in the 99th percentile events, however, have occurred across the entire region. The increasing frequency of extreme events in the western MoRB represent a significant change for the hydroclimate of the region. Overall, the results from this work show that MORB extreme precipitation has increased in frequency and intensity during the 1950 – 2019 period.