Time-Varying Empirical Probability Densities of Southern Ocean Surface Winds: Linking the Leading Mode to SAM and QuantifyingWind Product Differences

Abstract

Southern Ocean (SO) surface winds are essential for ventilating the upper ocean by bringing heat and CO2 to the ocean interior. The relationships between mixed-layer ventilation, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the storm tracks remain unclear because processes can be governed by short-term wind events as well as long-term means.In this study, observed time-varying 5-day probability density functions (PDFs) of ERA5 surface winds and stresses over the SO are used in a singular value decomposition to derive a linearly independent set of empirical basis functions. The first modes of wind (72% of the total wind variance) and stress (74% of the total stress variance) are highly correlated with a standard SAM index (r = 0.82) and reflect SAM’s role in driving cyclone intensity and, in turn, extreme westerly winds. This Joint PDFs of zonal and meridional wind show that southerly and less westerly winds associated with strong mixed-layer ventilation are more frequent during short and distinct negative SAM phases. The probability of these short-term events might be related to mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. The second mode describes seasonal changes in the wind variance (16% of the total variance) that are uncorrelated with the first mode.The analysis produces similar results when repeated using 5-day PDFs from a suite of scatterometer products. Differences between wind product PDFs resemble the first mode of the PDFs. Together, these results show a strong correlation between surface stress PDFs and the leading modes of atmospheric variability, suggesting that empirical modes can serve as a novel pathway for understanding differences and variability of surface stress PDFs.