Changes in MJO characteristics and impacts in the past century

Abstract

The changes of the MJO behavior and its impact on global precipitation, precipitation extremes, and high-frequency variability during the past century (1901–2010) were investigated using the NOAA-20CR dataset. It was found the MJO amplitude was significantly strengthened, while its eastward phase speed hardly changed. The impacts of the MJO on precipitation in South China (SC), northern Australia (AU), and California (CA) were investigated. The anomalous rainfall in the regions was strengthened from the early to late 20th century, with the percentage increase ranged from 67% in AU to 14% in CA. A moisture budget analysis indicated that the enhanced precipitation was primarily attributed to the effect of anomalous wind while the effect of the mean moisture change was small. The impact of the local meridional wind anomaly was critical in SC, while in AU and CA the zonal wind component dominated.The precipitation extremes had a significant increase from the early to late 20th century. The cumulative extreme precipitation amount increases by 140%-150% in SC and AU and by 100% in CA, and the number of the extreme day increases by 110% in SC and AU and 70% in CA. Such increases are consistent with the strengthening of the high-frequency (HF, with a period less than 10 days) variability across the globe. The pattern of percentage increase of the HF variability resembles the pattern of percentage increase of MJO-scale precipitation. This implies that the MJO teleconnection pattern could exert a large-scale control on the HF variability and weather extremes.