What does the Data Tell Us About Dominatarian Theory of Regional Integration?

Abstract

This article contests that the classical regional integration theoretical frameworks are too broad to bring out conceptual clarity and explain the emerging interstate tensions. The paper identifies two specific indicators that together can explain the dynamics: economic domination and institutional (interest groups) domination. It evaluates the applicability of the Onditi’s dominatarian theory by constructing an alternative thinking framework—regional trade dominance (RTD), to explain the dynamics of the regional integration based on trade data from the East African Community (EAC) Development Strategy, 2016–2021. The paper addresses this conceptual-policy lacuna by demonstrating how Kenya’s economic performance and institutional (interest groups) leverages have sustained its dominant interest, leading to interstate cynicism and mistrust. The persistent mistrust driven by the perceived asymmetric power balance among the EAC Partner States points to the importance of framing the debate in a way that constructs the outcome of the regional integration to accommodate both powerful states and those perceived weak. In this case, the RTD analytical framework, offers the option for constructing the outcome of a regional integration, either as a noun, dominance or as an act of domination.