Process-Based Evaluation of the Potential Affectiveness of Futures Studies as a Profession

Abstract

This article argues that futures studies practice must have relevance and meaning for society and organizations—that is, it should be affective—and that it should be evaluated as such. Evaluation should be process-based, specifically by observing the way futures studies as a profession is managed and interacts with society. Within this context, “evaluation” is defined as merit determination through process review, using as central norm the raison d’être for futures studies, namely, it must enhance better long-term decision making in organizations and in society. Affectiveness is an emergent quality. Emergence is a property that a whole (such as the subject area of futures studies) displays which is not apparent in its parts. In other words, it is a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts of the whole. With this in mind, futures studies can be visualized as an “application system” comprising of various specialized subsystems such as conceptual development, methodological development, scanning and trend research, scenario development, and idealized planning. The article defends and proposes a process-based approach to the evaluation of affectiveness: one that is based on a heuristic learning and dialogue design in the practice of futures studies. The quest for affectiveness is a journey toward an ideal, perhaps never to be reached but forever a guide toward improving the relevance and meaning of an important profession.