Remaining Useful Life Model and Assessment of Mechanical Products: A Brief Review and a Note on the State Space Model Method

Abstract

The remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of mechanical products has been widely studied for online system performance reliability, device remanufacturing, and product safety (safety awareness and safety improvement). These studies incorporated many different models, algorithms, and techniques for modeling and assessment. In this paper, methods of RUL assessment are summarized and expounded upon using two major methods: physics model based and data driven based methods. The advantages and disadvantages of each of these methods are deliberated and compared as well. Due to the intricacy of failure mechanism in system, and difficulty in physics degradation observation, RUL assessment based on observations of performance variables turns into a science in evaluating the degradation. A modeling method from control systems, the state space model (SSM), as a first order hidden Markov, is presented. In the context of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems, the SSM methodology is capable of performing remaining life assessment by using Bayesian estimation (sequential Monte Carlo). Being effective for non-linear and non-Gaussian dynamics, the methodology can perform the assessment recursively online for applications in CBM (condition based maintenance), PHM (prognostics and health management), remanufacturing, and system performance reliability. Finally, the discussion raises concerns regarding online sensing data for SSM modeling and assessment of RUL.