Research on the Rapid Risk Assessment System of Chemical Industrial Park Pipeline under Flood Water

Abstract

The rapid risk assessment for chemical industrial park is crucial to take timely and reasonable measures, eliminate potential safety hazard and avoid the domino accident when facing flood water disaster. This paper aims at the failure problem of the pipeline as the research key point, drawing on the mechanism of flood water’s impact force and wave force, the pipeline shows different failure behavior on condition of different the velocity and density of flood water, and the failure model of the impact force and wave force are established based on the vulnerability of the pipeline, and then the probability model is also built by defining the uncertainty parameters of the pipeline. At the same time, the large numbers of Monte Carlo operating is pre-processed, and the calculating result is saved into database by mean of matrix. Finally, an example is introduced to prove that the rapid risk assessment can be made based on input data of the real-time velocity and density of flood water. Introduction In recent years, the occurrence of the number of natural of events which can bring about severe consequences for the various industries is increasing, especially chemical industrial park because of the production, storage, use and transportation of a large number of high temperature, high pressure, flammable, explosive, poisonous and hazardous chemicals. According to Valerio Cozzani et al. investigation, the number of chemical accidents induced by natural disasters occupied 4 percent of overall chemical accidents, among which flood water disaster is the main one[1]. E. Krausmann and V. Cozzani think that the chemical accident disaster caused by flood water disaster is a typical HILP (high-impact and low-probability) event [2]. The storage tanks and pipeline are the equipment items that were most frequently damaged during flood water events, pipeline accidents occupies about 17% compared with storage tanks accidents 74% in the whole number of accidents based on Valerio Cozzani et al. analysis. Although pipeline have caused relatively few accidents, but a single pipeline accident could be catastrophic in terms of deaths and environmental damage in chemical industrial park. As seen in relative literatures, flood water has the potential to affect pipeline safety and increase the risk of failure. Drawing on a database of US pipeline incidents, which includes approximately 40,000 incidents from 1968 to 2009, Kyle Siler-Evanswe et al. obtained the conclusions: pipeline accident frequency and damages are decreasing over time, the damages caused by pipeline accidents follow a power-law distribution, and relatively few pipeline accidents account for the majority of damages for chemical industrial park [3]. Therefore, the analysis of pipeline accident is more necessary, especially accident by flood water. Pipeline Failure Model In the chemical industrial park, the failure of equipment can be categorized as damage failure and reliability failure [1][4]. Valerio Cozzania et al. summarized the damage of equipment caused by flood waters, including the collapse of equipment, the failure of connection and the failure of pipeline. According to the theory of flood dynamics[5], The most important identified factors that flood affect the equipment is the velocity, the special performance of damage is due to impact force when the velocity is relative large, the other situation is the wave power when the velocity is relative small. It is