Future directions in basin and petroleum systems modeling: A survey of the community

Abstract

In the last 30 yr, basin and petroleum system modeling (BPSM) has evolved into a large and diverse field encompassing a broad range of scientific disciplines. As BPSM is applied to an increasingly wide range of problems, what are, or should be, the future directions in the evolution of BPSM comes into question. To address this question, a survey was conducted at the AAPG Hedberg Research Conference on “The Future of Basin and Petroleum Systems Modeling,” held in Santa Barbara, California, April 3–8, 2016. To capture the full range of thoughts, participants were asked to list in priority order what they think are the three most important future directions in BPSM. The responses were collated into six general categories for analysis. The categorization process involved some qualitative judgements because some areas spanned several of the general areas. The results show that the most frequently cited directions are related to BPSM workflows, organizations, and processes. This category includes how modelers are used in an organization, how projects are executed, and how the results are interpreted and integrated. Migration modeling (primary and secondary) is the most frequently cited technical need. The results indicate that migration processes are not well understood and there are still substantial differences of thought about the processes involved and the best ways to model them. Some subjects, such as uncertainty and unconventionals, were mentioned in several of the general categories, whereas other subjects, such as increased functionality in the models, were only seldom mentioned.