Modeling duration of overtaking between non-motorized vehicles: A nonparametric survival analysis based approach

Abstract

The use of non-motorized vehicles in urban city has improved the convenience of short-distance travel and reduced traffic pollution. However, the overtaking behaviour of non-motorized vehicles impacts traffic safety and efficiency significantly. The objective of this study is to model the durations of overtaking behaviour in the non-motorized vehicle exclusive lane. A total of 3010 overtaking events of non-motorized vehicles were extracted from two locations in Chengdu, China. The nonparametric survival analysis was conducted to model the overtaking duration of non-motorized vehicles. The categorical variables that significantly influence the overtaking duration were examined by the Log-rank test. The results show that the overtaking durations of female riders is longer than that of male riders. It takes longer for electrical bikes to complete overtaking than conventional bikes. When the non-motorized vehicle is under the load state (i.e. passengers or goods on the non-motorized vehicle), the overtaking behaviour takes more time than the un-load state. Moreover, it takes less time to overtake the non-motorized vehicle with load than to overtake the one without load. When there is a wrong-way driving phenomenon or under higher traffic volume, the duration is longer compared to the normal traffic and lower traffic volume conditions. The findings of this study attempt to provide a more profound understanding of non-motorized vehicles overtaking behaviour under different traffic conditions and give insights to the safety research of non-motorized vehicles.