Explaining the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 through mobility and enterprise statistics: Evidence from the first wave in Japan

Abstract

This study uses mobility statistics combined with business census data for the eight Japanese prefectures with the highest coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) infection rates to study the effect of mobility reductions on the effective reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases caused by one infected person). Mobility statistics are a relatively new data source created by compiling smartphone location data; they can be effectively used for understanding pandemics if integrated with epidemiological findings and other economic data sets. Based on data for the first wave of infections in Japan, we found that reductions targeting the hospitality industry were slightly more effective than restrictions on general business activities. Specifically, we found that to hold back the pandemic (that is, to reduce the effective reproduction number to one or less for all days), a 20%–35% reduction in weekly mobility is required, depending on the region. A lesser goal, 80% of days with one or less observed transmission, can be achieved with a 6%–30% reduction in weekly mobility. These are the results if other potential causes of spread are ignored; for a fuller picture, more careful observations, expanded data sets, and advanced statistical modeling are needed.