DCRL: Approach for Pattern Recognition in Price Time Series using Directional Change and Reinforcement Learning

Abstract

Developing an intelligent pattern recognition model for electronic markets has been a vital research direction in the field. Ongoing research continues for intelligent learning algorithms capable of recognizing and classifying price patterns and hence providing investors and market analysts with better insights into price time-series. In this paper, an adaptive intelligent Directional Change (DC) pattern recognition model with Reinforcement Learning (RL) is proposed, so called DCRL model. Compared with traditional analytical approaches that uses fixed time interval and specified features of the market, the DCRL is an alternative intelligent approach that samples price time-series using an event-based time interval and RL. In this model, the environment’s behavior is incorporated into the RL process to automate the identification of directional price changes. The DCRL learns the price time-series representation by adaptively selecting different price features depending on the current state. DCRL is evaluated using Saudi stock market data with different price trends. A series of analyses demonstrate the effective analytical performance in detecting price changes and the extensive applicability of the DCRL model. Keywords—Machine learning; reinforcement learning; directional-change event; pattern recognition; stock market