Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE\nObjective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025.\n\n\nMETHOD\ntime series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death.\n\n\nRESULTS\nThere was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025.\n\n\nCONCLUSION\nFrom the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.