Computer simulation of fir forest dynamics in the Bieszczady Mountains in response to climate change

Abstract

Results of investigation of fir forest dynamics in the Bieszczady Mountains using a FORKOME (FORest KOzak MEnshutkin) model in response to climate changes are presented. The model was verified in field trials in 1998-2001 in a fir forest in forest district Procisne in the Bieszczady Mountains (Poland). Prediction of tree biomass and tree number was made for the next 600 years. The simulation demonstrated beech domination when mean annual temperature increases by 2°C while with a decrease in temperature by 2°C fir becomes dominant in the examined area. Both one simulation run and Monte Carlo simulation showed comparable results in statistical analysis. The results of FORKOME model simulations enable to set a thesis that forest succession may be used for evaluating the level of climate-change influence on forest ecosystems. Presented results indicate great usefulness of the model while investigating various subjects, especially concerning climate changes, which may have both theoretical and practical importance.