Decomposing the Effect of Population Changes on Crime Changes

Abstract

This study aims to test the relationship between the change in population size and population composition and crime changes. The analytical model includes variables representing changes in population size and population composition, three dependent variables for crime changes, and three control variables. Changes in popuvpdllation size and population composition are measured by indicators such as population size, gender, age groups, and immigrants and foreign workers, and crime changes by felonious, burglary, and violent crime volumes. The sample includes 154 cities and counties in South Korea, and the sample period is from 2010 to 2017. As a result of the analysis, I examine that the decrease in the number of young and men are likely to lead to a decline in felonious and violent crimes, but a high rate of the elderly and the increasing racial heterogeneity are likely to accelerate the fear and worries about crimes.