Changing U.S. Age, Racial, and Ethnic Demographics and Its Impact on Higher Education

Abstract

The United States of America is undergoing, and will continue to undergo, a demographic transformation the likes of which have never been experienced in this great Nation. The demographic changes which surfaced in the literature and became more pronounced around 2008, are now at the precipice of tectonic change, and its impact on higher education is already being felt. Three major events will take place over the upcoming decade. Each of which, by itself, may appear harmless and go relatively unnoticed. Together these three transformative changes paint a forever changing face of the demographics of the U.S. The impact of these three primary drivers of demographic change are already being felt in the hallowed halls of higher education. Colleges and universities are scrambling to accommodate these, still to be fully understood, major impacts. The first of these three major changes is the “graying” of America. The last of the Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, will turn 65+ years of age in 2030. This is particularly significant because of the financial impacts on social services and safety nets currently enacted into law in support of a generally aging population. The second of the three major changes is the marked cross-over (2035) where the number of people 65+ years of age outnumber the youths under the age of 18. The manifestation of this cross-over resides in the number of working age individuals for every aged dependency. When youth dependency, those aged under the age of 18, is added to the older-aged dependency, the net effect is a total dependency where there are two dependents for every three working age adults. This cross-over as well represents what has been termed the new minority majority of America; where the non-Hispanic White population becomes the minority overall population for the first time in U.S. history. The third, and final, of the three major demographic changes is the recognition that the primary driver for population growth in the U.S. will be from international migration. Not because of an increase in international migration, but because of an aging natural population and a declining birth rate of same. The new demographic of the United States has had a negative impact on enrollments in higher education. New minority populations are not equally prepared, financially or otherwise, to participate in higher education as the current non-Hispanic White majority population. To this end, 25 years of researched literature materializes into multiple changes currently being implemented by institutions of higher education to accommodate this new minority majority population. This paper extracts from the literature the most recent current demographic changes, the impact of these changes on the enrollments in higher education, the response of colleges and universities to these rapidly changing American demographic realities, and, the heightened awareness of these changes and their implications on continuing professional development administrative organizations. Changing U.S. Demographics The U.S. population, on the whole, is expected to grow more slowly, age considerably and become significantly more racially and ethnically diverse. It is expected the U.S. population will reach roughly 400 million people in the year 2058 [1, p. 2]. At this writing, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s World Population Clock, the U.S. population is 329 million; with one birth every eight seconds, one death every twelve seconds, one international migrant every twenty-eight seconds, for a net gain of one person every twelve seconds. The U.S. population is increasing, at a decreasing rate. Through the year 2030, the population grew at a rate of 2.3 million people per year. However, going forward from 2030, the population is expected to grow at a much slower rate of 1.5 million people per year from 2040 to 2060. The decrease in the rate of growth is predominantly due to an ageing Boomer population and declining fertility rates of the U.S. majority non-Hispanic White female population. The figure below [1, p. 9] depicts the calculation of population between 2017 and 2060. It takes into account the births by demographic cohorts, native-born mothers versus foreign-born mothers living in the U.S. Accounting for births by individual native-born, foreign-born, racial and ethnic cohorts is critical given the differences in fertility rates between these populations. Deaths is figured the same way as births; again, accounting for differences between native-born, foreignborn, racial and ethnic cohorts. Net immigration, discussed later, becomes an increasingly greater percentage of the population; not because of an increase in immigration, but because of an ageing majority non-Hispanic White population coupled with a declining birth rate of same. Figure 1 – Population Change 2017 – 2060 The Baby Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. The last of the youngest Boomers, those born in 1964, will turn 65 years of age in the year 2029; marking 2030 as the first year all boomers will be at least 65 years old. This single fact has enormous implications, sociologically, economically and without any doubt demographically. This change is coming and is inevitable. Figure 2 below [1, p.1] depicts the changing age demographic of those 65 years of age and older by calendar year. As can be seen the U.S. has a generally ageing population with greater percentages of total population being 65 years of age and older as time progresses. By 2020, 17% of the total U.S. population will be 65 years of age and older, by 2030, 21% of the U.S. population will be 65 years of age and older, and by 2060, nearly one quarter of the entire U.S. population will be over the age of 65. Figure 2 – Percentage of Population 65 Years of Age and Older In the U.S., the working age population is considered to be between the ages of 18 and 64. Those below the age of 18 are calculated as the youth population, while those age 65 and above are considered the senior, or aged, non-working population. In the ideal scenario, the backfill of an aged population is the youth population. This younger population becomes the working age population of a society and ensures the continuation of social programs such as social security, Medicare and other like programs for the aged population. As can be seen from the below figure [2, p. 3] the year 2035 marks the first time in U.S. history the older (65+) population is expected to outnumber the youth (under 18) population. Figure 4 below depicts the actual expected number of individuals in each of these age categories. From figure 4, it can be seen in the year 2030, the under 18 population is at 18.4 million, while the 65 and above population is at 73.1 million. By 2040, however, the under age 18 population is at 76.8 million, while the over 65 age population is at 80.8 million. The actual cross-over in population projections occurs in 2035. Figure 3 – Cross-Over of Dependent Populations Figure 4 – Population by Age: Projections 2020 to 2060 The shift from a youth-dependent population to an elderly-dependent population has significant implications as discussed above. The combined youth and old-age dependency, however, is even more revealing. Figure 5 below [1, p. 6] reflects this combined dependency on the working age population. From the below figure, two lines in particular are worth noting. In the year 2020, the total dependency ratio, as a measure of the burden on the working age population, is 64. Meaning, in the year 2020, there will be two dependents for every three working age adults. The combined dependency ratio, with the elderly population taking a higher percentage of the total dependency ratio, increases steadily through 2060, the last of the current estimated years. This dependency is, again, a reflection of a slower growing population, a declining fertility rate and a generally aging population. Figure 5 – Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios Impacting this discussion are adjustments attributed to postponing retirement for those social security age eligible. Current economic, political and social events have caused some of those eligible for “full” retirement, as defined by the U.S. Social Security Administration, to postpone retirement until a later age. While there is significant previously reported data on this topic [18, pgs. 236-238], the true impact at this writing is uncertain. And, for purposes of this paper, will simply be mentioned to heighten awareness and raise consciousness. Growing Racial and Ethnic Diversities The population in general is ageing and growing more slowly. This is especially true for nonHispanic Whites. The fastest growing populations are two or more races (+197%), Asian (+101%) and Hispanics (+93%). Figure 6 [1, p. 7] depicts the percent change from 2016 to 2060. The nonHispanic White population is, again, the only population expected to decline, reflecting a drop of over 19 million people for a percent change rate of -9.6%. This decline in population reflects the general aging of the population, coupled with the declining fertility rates of this cohort. While the non-Hispanic White population remains the single largest cohort group, by 2045 they will no longer be the majority of the population of the U.S. Figure 6 – Population by Race and Ethnicity Youth Minority Majority Change in 2020 The youth of the U.S. are the bench strength of any country’s population. They backfill the aging population and are the primary cohort to sustaining age related social programs, the strength of the working class and a country’s capacity to innovate. It is, therefore, imperative this population is sufficiently educated and capable of sustaining an on-going enterprise, or in this case, a country. By the year 2020, less than one half of the children under 18 years of age will be non-Hispanic White. Meaning, a majority of the youth population will be what has been historically known as a minority population;