Archive | 2021
On a Systematic Approach to the Study of International Migration Processes
Abstract
The article is devoted to the review of current trends in international migration in conditions of turbulence. The article substantiates the need to study migration processes within the framework of a single global migration system consisting of separate migration subsystems formed on a geographical basis and having stable internal and external migration links. The concept of “unified world migration system EMMS is given. The nature of the impact of all system-wide factors on international migration is considered. Along with the impact of socio-economic factors, in particular, the reaction of migrants to crisis phenomena in the economy, which is reflected in the scientific literature, attention is paid to the nature of the impact on the mobility of the population of factors related to the deterioration of the human environment, climate change, disasters, and the coronavirus pandemic. As a hypothesis, the article substantiates the assumption that the system-wide factors influence the scale and speed of migration exchange between individual migration subsystems in different directions, which served as the basis for providing for an increase in migration activity of the population in the future. Analytical and statistical methods, as well as the method of geographical zoning, were used to solve the research problems. The forecast of the number of international migrants by migration subsystems up to 2050 is made, and structural shifts in the distribution of international migrant flows by migration subsystems are revealed. In the international migration exchange in 2050, the number and share of migrants from the migration subsystems of Africa, Asia and Latin America will increase. The results obtained can be used for further in-depth research of migration patterns within the framework of a single global migration system, development of a methodology for predicting movements, taking into account various hypotheses of changes in migration behavior of the population.