COVID-19 Viral Load Not Associated with Disease Severity: Findings from A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

\n Background: Being able to use COVID-19 RT-PCR Ct values as simple markers of disease outcome or prognosis would allow for the easy and proactive identification and triaging of high-risk cases. This study’s objective was thus to assess whether a correlation exists between COVID-19 viral loads, as indicated by RT-PCR Ct values, and disease severity, as indicated by respiratory indices Results: A multi-centre cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted, using data obtained from Bahrain’s National COVID-19 Task force’s centralised database. The study period was from May 2, 2020 to July 31, 2020. A multivariable logistic regression was used to assess for a correlation. The covariates adjusted for included sex, age, presentation, and comorbidities. In our cohort, Ct value showed no statistical significance for an association with requirement for oxygenation on admission (Odds ratio 1.046; 95%CI 0.999 to 1.096, p=0.054). Conclusion: Viral load, as indicated by Ct values, did not seem to be associated with requirement for oxygenation on admission in our cohort. We postulate however that time since onset of symptom may have acted as an unaccounted-for confounder.