Spatio-temporal Evolution of Water-Energy-Food System Risk from the Provincial Perspective: A Case Study of China

Abstract

\n In this paper, the definition of Water-energy-food system risk (WEF-R) was firstly defined based on stability, coordination and sustainability. Set pair analysis and risk matrix were applied to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of WEF-R in China from 2008 to 2017. The research results showed that stability subsystem had the greatest influence on the WEF-R, and sustainability subsystem was an important factor affecting the WEF-R. According to the spatial-temporal analysis, the risk levels of coordination and sustainable subsystems showed a gradual downward trend, while that of stability subsystem showed small fluctuations from 2008 to 2017. In terms of the WEF-R level, it presented a decreasing trend of small fluctuations. In addition, the higher-risk areas of stability subsystem and lower-risk areas of sustainability subsystem, which were mainly centralized in southeast coastal and central regions, were consistent with the areas of good economic development level and high level of urbanization. While the lower-risk areas of stability subsystem and higher-risk areas of sustainability subsystem, which were mainly centralized in the northwest regions, brought into correspondence with the areas of good resource endowment but lower levels of economic development. Therefore, the spatial differences of economic development level and resource endowment were the main factors affecting the spatial pattern of the WEF-R level in China. Therefore, policy makers should focus on WEF-R and implement measures to improve the sustainable development of WEF nexus.