Estimation of Trends of Ageing Index of Iran from 1966 to 2016 and Prediction of these indices in 2026

Abstract

\n Background: In the recent years, one of the most important issues of the demographic day that has attracted a lot of attention and will intensify is the aging population and the consequences of trend population growth. This study was aimed to estimate the Ageing Index (AI) of Iran from 1966 to 2016 and prediction of these indices in 2026. Methods: This quantitative cross-sectional study included Ageing Index of Iran from 1966 to 2016 was investigated and then, using Minitab16 software and time series models, the prediction of these indicators for the next 10 years (2026) was studied. The library and documentary methods have been used to collect information and raw data from the General Population and Housing Census in 2016. The statistical population includes the total population of the elderly (65 years and above) of urban and rural areas of Iran.Results: According to our findings, the index of aging will reach 6.36% in 1966 to 37.36% in 2016, and is expected to increase to 10.2% in 2026. The life expectancy of women and men in 2016 was 76.7 and 74.5, respectively, and expected to reach 78.3 and 76 years in 2026, respectively. The Human Development Index has risen from 52.0% in 1355 to 0.77% in 2016 and is expected to reach 80.8% by 2026. Based on result this study the evaluation of demographic indices such as sex ratio, the proportion, average annual growth rate, dependency ratio and ageing index for the Iranian elderly population at 2006 were 108,7.3%, 2.5%, 43.4% and 29, respectively. Conclusion: According to the results, the aging indicator has a rising trend that requires proper planning for proper welfare. Based on trend population growth in the next decades Iran will going to experience an increasing proportion of elder population. Attention to needs and quality of life in elderly is very important because of improving living condition in this population could lead to improved quality of life. Also, policy makers should pay more attention to the health demands of the elderly.