Triangular Policy Inference from Renewable Energy, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Urbanization Towards Climate Goal: Insight from Indonesia

Abstract

\n This is an expository study towards ascertaining the ability of Indonesia in mitigating carbon emission. Indonesia is positioned as among the best performing economies in Southeast Asia because of its vigorous fiscal management and sustained economic growth over the years. The country’s foreign investment inflow increased to 14% in 2019, largely in gas, electricity, water, and transportation because of the viability of its macroeconomic reforms. To test the environmental implication of this macroeconomic performance of Indonesia and to see its ability to achieve carbon neutrality, we adopt Indonesian quarterly data of 1990Q1- 2018Q4 for empirical analysis. Relevance Instruments in the economic performance of Indonesia such as urbanization, foreign direct investment (FDI) and renewable energy source are all adopted for accurate estimations and analysis of this topic. Different approaches such as structural break test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing and granger causality are all adopted in this study. Our analysis and policy recommendations are based on short run and long run ARDL dynamics and granger causality. Findings from ARDL confirmed, negative relationship between carbon emission and renewable energy source, FDI and urbanization. Also, a U-shape instead of inverted U-shape EKC is found confirming the impeding implication of Indonesian economic growth to its environmental performance if not checkmate. From granger causality analysis, all the variables are seen transmitting to urbanization in a one-way causal relationship. Also, FDI and renewable energy prove to be essential determinants of the country’s environment development, hence, FDI is seen transmitting to both energy source (fossil fuels and renewables) in a one- way causal relationship. Renewable energy is as well seen having two ways causal relationship with both carbon emission and fossil fuels. This result has equally exposed the significant position of the three instruments (urbanization, FDI and renewable energy source) in Indonesia environment development.